Yahya Sinwar's death: Is it the 'beginning of the end' for Hamas?

Yahya Sinwar , Hamas leader in Gaza and the mastermind behind last year's surprise attack on Israel, was killed on October 17, 2024, during a firefight with Israeli forces in Rafah, southern Gaza.

His death marks a pivotal moment in the Israel-Hamas conflict, a year after he orchestrated the bloodiest assault on Israel in its history.

Driving the news

• Sinwar, who spent years planning the surprise attack that killed nearly 1,200 Israelis and resulted in the capture of 250 hostages, had been in hiding since the October 7 assault.
• After October 7 attack, Israel had made Sinwar public enemy number one, and PM Benjamin Netanyahu declared him a “dead man walking”.
• For over a year, Sinwar communicated with his followers through handwritten notes and runners, avoiding mobile phones that could be tracked.
• Despite living underground in difficult conditions, he appeared to maintain control over events, overseeing hostages, negotiating through proxies, and directing military attacks.
• The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) had made Sinwar their top target as they launched a massive offensive in Gaza.
• However, it was a chance encounter with an IDF foot patrol near Rafah that ultimately led to his demise. The patrol, accompanied by tanks, engaged in a firefight with Sinwar and two other men, killing them. Sinwar's body was identified the following day by a drone surveying the damaged building where he had been sheltering.

Why it matters

• Sinwar’s death is more than a symbolic victory for Israel; it removes the central figure who had guided Hamas through one of its most aggressive military campaigns.
• Netanyahu quickly framed it as a major milestone, claiming that the operation fulfilled one of Israel’s key wartime objectives. Sinwar was at the top of Israel’s hit list from the beginning of the war, and his death is likely to be celebrated by many in Israel as retribution for the October 7 attack.
• But his demise also poses significant challenges. For Hamas, Sinwar was not only a military strategist but the figurehead of its governance in Gaza since 2017. His sudden elimination leaves Hamas without a clear leader at a time when its command structure has already been decimated. Other senior leaders like Muhammad Deif, the military commander, and Marwan Issa, Sinwar’s deputy, have also been killed.

The big picture

• Sinwar’s leadership of Hamas was instrumental in shaping its military and political strategy over the last decade. Released from an Israeli prison in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange, Sinwar was a hardliner from the outset, known for his militant views and ruthless tactics. His legacy will forever be tied to the October 7, 2023, attack, which he meticulously planned over several years, exploiting Israel’s vulnerabilities. That attack, intended to be the start of Hamas’ "final battle" against Israel, unleashed a chain reaction of violence that has devastated Gaza and redrawn the contours of the Middle East conflict.
• While the IDF quickly mobilized after the attack, Sinwar and much of Hamas’ leadership went into hiding in a labyrinthine network of tunnels under Gaza. For nearly a year, Sinwar managed to evade Israeli forces, directing operations through couriers and handwritten notes, avoiding digital communication to thwart Israeli surveillance. The death toll in Gaza since the conflict began has surpassed 42,000, and much of the region lies in ruins due to Israel’s relentless airstrikes and ground incursions.
• Without Sinwar, Gaza's future looks increasingly uncertain. His death could open the door for potential negotiations, especially regarding the release of the remaining hostages.

What they are saying

• Israeli PM Netanyahu called Sinwar’s killing “the beginning of the end” of the war, framing it as a significant victory for Israel.
• "Today we have settled the score. Today evil has been dealt a blow but our task has still not been completed," Netanyahu said in a recorded video statement after the death was confirmed on Thursday.
• "To the dear hostage families, I say: This is an important moment in the war. We will continue full force until all your loved ones, our loved ones, are home."
• US President Joe Biden echoed this sentiment, calling it "a good day" for Israel, the US, and the world, and suggesting that it might open a path to a post-Hamas Gaza.
• Andrew Miller, until recently a senior US State Department official dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, told AFP that Israel could use Sinwar's death "as a pretext to argue that we have achieved our objectives and it's time to move in a different direction." But "I'm not especially optimistic that PM Netanyahu and his coalition will do this. Another Israeli government might, but they just haven't, particularly in recent weeks, demonstrated a real interest in this track," Miller added.
• Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the progressive Center for International Policy, told AFP that Netanyahu has been "seemingly gambling on a Trump victory" by escalating the conflict with expectations of US support.
• Netanyahu could be emboldened by Sinwar's death to adopt a Gaza-like "scorched earth strategy" in Lebanon, where Israel last month killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Toossi added.

Between the lines: Regional implications

• Sinwar’s death does not exist in a vacuum and its implications go beyond the immediate power vacuum in Hamas. It also raises the possibility of shifting alliances and strategies in the wider region. Hamas' relationships with other actors, particularly Iran and Hezbollah, have been instrumental in sustaining the conflict. Sinwar had been working closely with Iran and Hezbollah in the lead-up to the October 7 attack, hoping to coordinate a multi-front offensive on Israel. However, Iran and Hezbollah’s engagement has remained limited compared to Hamas’ brutal assault from Gaza.
• Now, with Sinwar gone, there is a chance that Iran may reconsider its level of involvement. Israel has also been battling Hezbollah on its northern front, and while Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli strike earlier in 2024, the group remains a significant threat. Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have long formed a triad of opposition to Israel, but without strong leadership in Gaza, this coalition could weaken.
• Israel's broader strategy has been to decimate Hamas’ leadership and force a recalibration of the group's objectives, while simultaneously seeking to restore its military deterrence across the region. Sinwar's death might serve that purpose, but it could also embolden other factions, such as Islamic Jihad or extremist elements within Hamas, to escalate violence in retaliation.

What's next

• The question now is what happens to Hamas. The immediate question is who will replace Sinwar. His brother, Mohammed Sinwar, is a senior Hamas commander and could step into the leadership role, but he lacks the strategic vision that Yahya had. His ascension could lead to further instability, particularly as he is seen as more of a tactical operator than a visionary leader. Some analysts believe that Khalil Al-Hayya, a senior Hamas figure and top negotiator, might take the helm. If Al-Hayya rises to power, there is a possibility that Hamas could shift toward diplomacy, particularly in ceasefire negotiations or potential hostage deals.
• Another potential candidate is Khaled Meshaal, who has been based in Qatar and holds considerable sway within Hamas' political wing. Meshaal is viewed as more pragmatic and has previously expressed openness to negotiations. His return to power could shift Hamas' focus from military confrontation to political survival.
• Sinwar's death also leaves Israel with a conundrum: while it has succeeded in weakening Hamas militarily, the future governance of Gaza remains unresolved. Israel has shown little interest in directly governing Gaza again, and the idea of fully eradicating Hamas seems increasingly unlikely.
• The death of Yahya Sinwar may offer a fleeting moment of hope for an end to the conflict. But without a clear roadmap for peace, and with many of the region’s key players still entrenched in their positions, the road ahead remains fraught with uncertainty.
• "The long-term war between Israel and Iran isn’t over, nor is the tragedy of the stateless Palestinians. Still it is possible to see a route out: a calibrated Israeli retaliation on Iran; a ceasefire negotiation in Gaza and a de-escalation in Lebanon. Mr Sinwar would hate to hear it but his death creates an opportunity for Israel to take an off-ramp that could, perhaps, lead to an end to this war," said a report in the Economist.

(With inputs from agencies)