Biden administration sees ceasefire opportunity after Hamas leader Sinwar's death, but elections loom large

Following months of setbacks, President Joe Biden’s administration senses a potential breakthrough for a Gaza ceasefire after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. However, the upcoming US elections present a significant challenge to diplomatic efforts.

Both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who is currently in a tight presidential race against Donald Trump, expressed hope that Sinwar’s elimination could bring an end to a year of war. Biden also announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would return to the Middle East for further negotiations.

Sinwar, the architect behind the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that led to a fierce Israeli military response, had been a key opponent of Biden’s ceasefire proposal. The plan would have temporarily halted hostilities in exchange for the release of hostages.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under pressure from his far-right coalition, has been reluctant to heed Biden’s requests, including calls to avoid expanding the conflict into Lebanon, where Israel has also launched airstrikes against Hezbollah.

Andrew Miller, a former State Department official, noted that Sinwar’s death might offer Israel a reason to shift course. "Israel could use Sinwar’s death as a pretext to argue that we have achieved our objectives and it's time to move in a different direction,” Miller said. However, he remained skeptical, stating that Netanyahu’s current government hasn’t shown much interest in such a shift.

For Harris, achieving a ceasefire would be a major political victory, especially as she faces criticism from her party’s left wing for not applying more pressure on Netanyahu. Miller suggested that the election’s impact could influence Israel’s decision-making process.

Blinken heads to Middle East, hopes for Saudi normalization

Blinken’s upcoming trip to the Middle East will be his 11th since the conflict began. The Biden administration has been working to persuade Netanyahu by promoting the prospect of normalization with Saudi Arabia. Before the October 7 attack, Netanyahu had focused on strengthening ties with the Arab world, following the normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020.

Former US negotiator Dennis Ross believes Biden will emphasize these potential gains, as well as the UAE’s public offer to send troops to post-war Gaza. The goal of any deal would be to politically weaken Hamas and block its smuggling routes, while shaping Gaza’s future without the militant group.

"The point would be, you're creating an ability to declare success," Ross explained.

Ghaith al-Omari, a former Palestinian Authority advisor, noted that Hamas’s new leadership, likely operating from Qatar, may be more inclined to negotiate but would have limited influence over the situation in Gaza.

Netanyahu’s political gamble

Netanyahu faces growing pressure from far-right members of his coalition who demand a military solution. Sina Toossi, from the Center for International Policy, said Netanyahu may be betting on a Trump victory in the US elections, believing Trump would support a more aggressive approach.

Sinwar’s death could embolden Netanyahu to pursue further military actions in Lebanon, where Israel recently killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. However, the fate of the remaining hostages in Gaza remains a critical issue. Toossi noted that Netanyahu’s political standing could rise if he rescues the hostages but could suffer if efforts fail.

"The ball is now in Netanyahu’s court," Toossi said.

As the situation unfolds, the Biden administration watches closely, balancing diplomatic efforts with the pressures of the US electoral cycle.