Bihar exit polls: Pollsters predict landslide for NDA - but how accurate were they last time

NEW DELHI: Exit polls released after the second and final phase of polling in Bihar indicate that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on course to retain power, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan may fall short of the majority mark. Most predictions also suggest that Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj contesting its first assembly elections — is unlikely to make an impact in terms of seats.

Voting took place in two phases, on November 6 and 11, with the Election Commission recording a historic voter turnout. The second phase alone saw a provisional turnout of 67.14%, the highest ever in Bihar for an assembly election, prompting both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan to claim that the numbers favour their side.


2025 exit polls give NDA clear lead

Multiple pollsters have projected a clear edge for the Nitish Kumar-led alliance. Matrize Exit Poll estimated 147–167 seats for the NDA, while placing the Mahagathbandhan between 70–90 and Jan Suraaj at 0–2 seats. Dainik Bhaskar projected a similar trend, giving 145–160 seats to the NDA and 73–91 to the opposition alliance.

People's Pulse predicted 133–159 seats for the NDA, 75–101 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–5 for Jan Suraaj, while People's Insight estimated the NDA at 133–148, the opposition at 87–102, and Jan Suraaj at 0–2. Pollster P-Marq projected the NDA at 142–162, the Mahagathbandhan at 80–98 and Jan Suraaj at 1–4. According to DVC Research, the NDA may secure 137–152 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 83–98, with Jan Suraaj getting 2–4.

The JVC survey predicted 135–150 seats for the NDA and 88–103 for the opposition. Polstrat’s forecast mirrored this range, placing the ruling coalition at 133–148 and the Mahagathbandhan at 87–102.

Chanakya Strategies, known for strong pre-election polling performances in other states, projected 130–138 for the NDA and 100–108 for the Mahagathbandhan, while giving zero seats to Jan Suraaj.

Bihar recorded a sharp surge in polling across districts. Kishanganj topped the list with 76.26%, followed by Katihar at 75.23%, Purnia at 73.79%, and Supaul at 70.69%. Nawada registered the lowest turnout at 57.11%. High participation figures were also seen in Araria, Bhagalpur, Paschim Champaran, Gaya and Kaimur.

How accurate were exit polls last time?

While the projections favour the NDA comfortably, Bihar’s electoral history suggests that exit polls have often struggled to capture the pulse of the state.

In 2020, nearly every major agency predicted a clear edge for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. The Times Now–C-Voter poll projected 116 seats for the NDA and 120 for the opposition. India Today–Axis My India went further, forecasting a landslide: 150 seats for the Mahagathbandhan and just 80 for the NDA. Jan Ki Baat estimated 104 for the NDA and 128 for the Grand Alliance. TV9 Bharatvarsh projected 120–115 in favour of the opposition. Even ETG Research placed the Mahagathbandhan ahead.

However, the final result overturned almost every forecast. The NDA crossed the majority with 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan finished at 110 — a result that few agencies saw coming. The RJD remained the single largest party with 75 seats, but the BJP emerged as the dominant force within the NDA. The JD(U), though weakened, stayed in government.

Go further back to 2015, and the picture was even more dramatic. That year, Nitish Kumar fought alongside Lalu Prasad Yadav as part of the Mahagathbandhan. Most exit polls predicted a neck-and-neck contest, some even forecasting an NDA victory. Today’s Chanakya estimated 155 seats for the NDA and just 83 for the Mahagathbandhan. Nielsen predicted 130 seats for the Grand Alliance, but many others placed the race almost evenly.

The actual results were a complete reversal: the Mahagathbandhan swept the polls with 178 seats, and the NDA was reduced to 58 — a landslide no exit poll had foreseen.

The majority mark in the 243-member assembly is 122. The NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U) and LJP (Ram Vilas), is seeking another term under Nitish Kumar, while the INDIA bloc, led in Bihar by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav along with the Congress and Left parties, hopes for a breakthrough.