'After Israel's early morning revenge attack, the Tehran regime remains intact...for now'

While much of the world slept, Israel was busily taking its much-awaited revenge against Iran.

Flying into enemy territory, aircraft targeted military sites in the early hours of Saturday morning. It came after Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel earlier this month. But it follows tensions that have simmered for much longer.

And, with the US election taking place next month, the result could prove pivotal in how the crisis in the Middle East develops (more on that later). Israel’s attack was reportedly said by a senior US official to have been “extensive but precise”. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have bowed to his US counterpart Joe Biden’s insistence that nuclear and oil targets should be spared.

Tehran was left standing, the regime remains intact… for the time being. Everything depends on whether Iran will retaliate. The odds are that it will not. Even so, the world holds its breath once again, waiting to see if the tit-for-tat conflict between Israel and Iran will now settle.

It may do, for the time being. Israel has demonstrated its ability to attack anywhere in the Middle East at will. If Iran hushes, Israel can focus its attention on the enemy it fears most: the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Israel’s brutal year-long war in Gaza – and the unjustifiable suffering of civilians – continues.

But there will be a day after tomorrow. There always is. Two things could happen. First, after November 5’s US election – and especially if hawkish Trump wins – Israel may indeed opt to attack Iran again. But, this time, it would be a definitive onslaught with nuclear sites not spared.

Its aim would be to get rid of the regime itself – bringing the great powers into the conflict, with Iran’s ally Russia standing ready. Secondly, again after the election, Netanyahu may decide to finish the job by converting Gaza and southern Lebanon into dust, cementing his country as the only dominant power in the region.

These steps would not just be an escalation but the gamble of Netanyahu’s life. And he might even get away with it. Even if he does, his reputation – and that of Israel – would be stained for a generation. But turning Gaza and southern Lebanon to rubble cannot deliver long term security for Israel or the region. It will, sadly, only lead to more war for future generations in the Middle East.